SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Memo to Pittsburgh Steelers: It's time to make Justin Fields, not Russell Wilson, QB1

As it pertains to NFL preseason “action,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center” maybe a picture is only worth 100 words. But there was sufficient imagery coming out of the Steel City on Saturday night to paint a perfectly clear conclusion: Justin Fields should be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback.

Let’s stipulate what we all know to be true about football in August. Teams aren’t digging into their playbooks on either side of the ball. Starters are getting limited reps – at most. Otherwise, NFL-caliber players are often interspersed with pending insurance-caliber salesmen once roster cuts come.

Acknowledged.

But if you trust your eyes, Fields, who played the final five drives of a 9-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills, was obviously far more dynamic than fading veteran Russell Wilson, who was on the field for Pittsburgh’s first five possessions. With Wilson, the Steelers went three-and-out three times, punted four, gained 49 yards – total – and didn’t score. He passed for 47 yards and was sacked three times. Fields threw for 92 yards, ran for 42 yet only led the offense to three points.

“I thought he got better in some areas,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Fields. “I thought he did a nice job utilizing his legs, whether it was impromptu or otherwise, to keep some situations alive.”

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But you have to go beyond the numbers, and – while taking preseason’s limitations into account – it’s important to remember that both Wilson, who started a pair of Super Bowls for the Seattle Seahawks, and Fields, a first-rounder in 2021 who was dumped by the Chicago Bears after losing 28 of 38 starts (with a very limited supporting cast), are both learning a foreign playbook while surrounded by new teammates.

Yet Wilson seemed to revert to his form with the Denver Broncos the past two seasons – tentative, mostly throwing underneath and not displaying the ability to extend plays that so often made him effective for a decade in the Pacific Northwest. He said the calf injury he suffered early in training camp wasn’t an issue Saturday. Meanwhile, Fields showed off the juice in his wheels repeatedly, pulling the ball on keepers and creating much better spacing for an attack that’s supposed to rely more heavily on the run game under new coordinator Arthur Smith. Fields moved the chains and created opportunities for others.

"He has that dual-threat capability that can really take this offense to another level as he continues to get more comfortable with it," said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, believing Fields should get the starting nod.

This isn't to suggest he was remotely perfect. Fields missed wide-open T.J. Luther down the middle for what would have been a potential go-ahead TD late in the fourth quarter. The Steelers failed to convert on fourth down on his final three drives … though it appeared his pass to tight end Connor Heyward deep in Buffalo territory could have (should have?) been caught with little more than three minutes to play.

“We got into the red zone a couple of times,” said Fields. “But I think next week we’re just going to have to turn those drives into points.”

Still, a week after he struggled with the exchange from center, it was a marked improvement for Fields. But …

“Still not what we're looking for,” Tomlin said, meaning his overall assessment of the team.

He later offered something more specific in regard to Wilson while bemoaning the level of protection he and Fields were afforded.

“The first three or so series of the game, it was three-and-out,” said Tomlin, “and you're not going to get an opportunity to establish rhythm or play the way that you would like as an individual or a collective.”

But maybe the collective is where Tomlin and GM Omar Khan should focus.

This team has never finished with a losing record or in last place in Tomlin’s 17-season tenure. But the Steelers are also nearly 16 years removed from their last Super Bowl victory, have averaged 9.5 wins over the past six seasons and haven’t prevailed in a playoff game since the 2016 season.

Pittsburgh seems reasonably likely to remain on the playoff periphery in 2024, but good luck finding anyone outside the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex that thinks this squad is championship-caliber. Wilson, who will be 36 in November, probably has enough left to keep the Steelers around the nine- or 10-win level. But what are you really building with him, especially given he’ll be a free agent following the season?

Fields? He’s gifted if inconsistent. There will be highs with him ... and lows. His athleticism is a weapon, yet it can’t be a crutch – and he needs to learn to be more decisive in the passing game. But his skills also seem better suited to Smith’s offense, and what could once again be an elite Pittsburgh defense should provide a decent margin of error. Only 25, if Fields can make strides harnessing his ability with help from Tomlin and Smith, this still could be a nine- or 10-win club. (Chicago went 7-10 last year and had fewer weapons on both sides of the ball.) If that happens, Khan could comfortably give Fields, who’s also unsigned beyond this season, say, a three-year, $100 million extension similar to what Baker Mayfield earned with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the 2023 campaign. If things go haywire, and the Steelers spiral to 5-12? Then they’re in much better position to draft their next quarterback in 2025.

Never one to reveal a decision before he’s good and ready, Tomlin wasn’t tipping his hand after the game.

“We'll meet tomorrow. We'll comb through it in great detail,” he said. “That's just a knee-jerk assessment of some things.”

Maybe sleeping on it will be revelatory for Tomlin. But after declaring in the offseason that Wilson was in the “pole position” to be the Steelers’ QB1 in 2024, sure does seem like Fields should be the guy who finishes in the winner’s circle.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.